Will the vintage les paul market ever fall?

[dspelman]

My personal feeling is that the market for authentic burst LPs has already topped out; I haven't seen a real increase in price on these things for maybe 10 years now. I don't want to speculate on what they *might* do in years to come, but I don't see much beyond an inflation bump in their prices coming their way.

 

[sws1]

My personal feeling is that the market for authentic burst LPs has already topped out; I haven't seen a real increase in price on these things for maybe 10 years now. I don't want to speculate on what they *might* do in years to come, but I don't see much beyond an inflation bump in their prices coming their way.

They fell after 2008 and have definitely moved up since then.

 

[Dark Horse]

Thats right in eastern europe and south america there is still a little bit hop for guitar playing but speaking of vintage marked and prices, those countries income will propably never reach western standards. Most folks would have to work two lifes to afford a vintage Gibson or Fender.

Not necessarily. Some of those countries are on the up while the West is starting to decline. The two may end up meeting in the middle somewhere along the line.

 

[Dino Velvet]

As long as there are rich people there will be collectables, and flippers. That 70's strat may be worthless when all new guitars are cordless. But the Bursts will still be considered blue chips and so will attract an audience , even if they never play them.

 

[JMT Guitars]

In all honesty, I don’t see many current players in their mid-20s or younger who even see a CS/Historic Les Paul as their goal.

Out of the handful of guitarists in that generation that do see Les Pauls as desirable, how many then lust for vintage instead of seeing even CS models as beyond them?

Going deeper down this rabbit hole, how many of those that do see a vintage Les Paul as something they desire will be in a position to afford one, and then actually make that purchase?

With each rung of the ladder you filter out so many people that it becomes a very small group that have the desire, finances and will actually combine them into a purchase. Many will want but not have the resources, many will have the resources but will not see value.

It’s why I highlighted that I don’t see people in their 20s buying vintage Les Pauls in my earlier post. I see loads of guitar stuff on Instagram (mainly thanks to their software, not because there’s as much content as it seems), and most of those who even have Historics in their 20s see it as the top of the pyramid, it’s their most cherished, expensive possession. They could barely buy a single one at a good price, vintage is simply a pipe dream. The huge majority of younger guitarists aren’t interested in Gibson at all and those that are already baulk at USA model prices, never mind CS and then vintage.

Those that are wealthy and want to show off that wealth don’t seem to go for guitars now, having an old expensive guitar isn’t a ‘cool’ thing. Those that think they’re cool and go along with their dad to guitar shows and vintage guitar shops generally don’t have the money and likely won’t have the money to meet the buy-in, unless that figure drops.

Providing the context to this post, I’m a 25 year old who’s been drooling after a burst since I was about 12 years old. I didn’t grow up travelling to vintage guitar shops at the weekends and trundling around the guitar shows in the US. I’m lucky to have a good degree (without debt), a good job (enough that burst money is possible within only a few years if I perform well), and I’m also lucky enough to have inheritance due from well-off family. Even with all those years of wanting, even with the knowledge that sooner or later I’ll be in a position to afford a burst at current prices, I would still be hesitant when that money can work so much better elsewhere (property, market investments). Especially knowing a good Historic with a makeover is going to get you even 70-80% of the way there for 5% of the cost.

I fully agree with this. Eric makes some very good points, but I genuinely think that when the 20 somethings of today are retired, and the blues lawyers have gone, the demand for what remains of the bursts will dwindle very seriously. I am 21, and I genuinely see in no way shape or form will I ever own a burst. It aint gonna happen. A boy can dream, but I am the only person I know who gives a shit. I literally do not know a single other person my age who would kill for a 59. Gibsons name is nearly mud in the youth players community- I was reamed by my guitar player mates for buying an 09 USA Gibson.

 

[Torshalla]

I have kept on saying that Rock and Roll was dying since I discovered it 30 years ago... (in my teens)
Well it is still alive and kicking
So is the blues.
I have been wrong all along.

As people age I think their tastes evolve. I have gone from Metal, to classic rock and then to blues as i have been aging haha
I do see many youngsters enjoying good old classic rock today around me (in Sweden) and i expect that to continue.
May not be the main stream music, but it remains the best

 

[eric ernest]

Some of those countries are on the up while the West is starting to decline. The two may end up meeting in the middle somewhere along the line.

Can't think of a more tragic outcome.

I just watched a sobering documentary on Chernobyl tonight....lots to learn from history...unless we rewrite it.

 

[Dark Horse]

Can't think of a more tragic outcome.

I just watched a sobering documentary on Chernobyl tonight....lots to learn from history...unless we rewrite it.

It is tragic but sadly things change. I watched a documentary on the Blues a while ago. The host was interviewing an old African American blues man, he was saying that young black kids aren't into Blues and it's white people now who get into it. In Australia you have young people even in the country driving around with hip hop and techno blasting from their Utes (Aussie version of a Pick up truck).

So you get cultural shifts. Probably more Chinese people learning how to play Beethoven and Mozart etc than European people too.

 

[d1m1]

Not necessarily. Some of those countries are on the up while the West is starting to decline. The two may end up meeting in the middle somewhere along the line.

I´m not an economist but i dont see that coming anywhere soon (in the next century)

 

[decoy205]

Because NEW music is not as good/interesting as OLD music.

Name a song in the last 10-20 years that rivals Bohemian Rhapsody....Stairway to Heaven....Hotel California....

Oh yeah, Adele.....wow, there's some musical gravitas....and there's a litany of other household names that a "yawners."

It's why legacy acts still fill stadiums....and yes, there will still be demand when they're gone.....somebody will step up to the plate...it's only a question of who.

just had to quote this. I’ve literally said this same thing to people and used almost the same examples, Even Adele.
Music that even has any level of skill to create is considered great meanwhile it really just mediocre compared to older classics.

 

[Gas4LPs]

This is completely 180 degrees of reality.

The HIGH PRICE creates more demand.

People "want" what they can't have....it's human nature.

An completely made up example:
At $4,000 there are 50,000 people who would buy a new R9 at that price.
At $5,000 there are 25,000 people who would buy a new R9 at that price.
At $6,000 there are 10,000 people who would buy a new R9 at that price.
At $50,000 there are close to zero people who would buy a new R9 at that price.

As price increases demand goes down.

 

[efstop]

An completely made up example:
At $4,000 there are 50,000 people who would buy a new R9 at that price.
At $5,000 there are 25,000 people who would buy a new R9 at that price.
At $6,000 there are 10,000 people who would buy a new R9 at that price.
At $50,000 there are close to zero people who would buy a new R9 at that price.

As price increases demand goes down.

An R9 is not a '59 burst, and the buyers of a '59 aren't interested in an R9. At some point, I suppose the price of a particular '59 might be too high for any buyer, but it has been pointed out, a lot of bursts never see a shop guitar rack, or appear in an ad.

I could have an R9 right now if I hadn't bought ten lesser guitars the last two years.

 

[Dark Horse]

An R9 is not a '59 burst, and the buyers of a '59 aren't interested in an R9. At some point, I suppose the price of a particular '59 might be too high for any buyer, but it has been pointed out, a lot of bursts never see a shop guitar rack, or appear in an ad.

I could have an R9 right now if I hadn't bought ten lesser guitars the last two years.

I've considered that too, instead of having 12 guitars I could have had 1 R9 but I would still want the other 12 guitars anyway and would feel cheated!

I'm happy to wait for the R9 if indeed I ever really feel a need to have one and you never know what Gibson might come out with in the future, I have read their historic '59 from a few years ago was better anyway. So no rush for me.

 

[eric ernest]

An R9 is not a '59 burst, and the buyers of a '59 aren't interested in an R9.

Thanks for the redirect!

An completely made up example:
At $4,000 there are 50,000 people who would buy a new R9 at that price.
At $5,000 there are 25,000 people who would buy a new R9 at that price.
At $6,000 there are 10,000 people who would buy a new R9 at that price.
At $50,000 there are close to zero people who would buy a new R9 at that price.

As price increases demand goes down.

Again, the price of a VINTAGE guitar is tied to demand. High price, high desirability.

Same thing with super models....the "buy in" is really high.

 

[guitarbob123]

So therefore if the price was lower then there’d be less demand? Seems a bit unlikely

I would imagine that while some are attracted by the high price point, more people who can’t afford but want to buy bursts are priced out of the market.

If we use the logic that there’s more people who want a burst but can’t afford it than people who want a burst because they’re so expensive, the high price makes the market smaller. Therefore, the high price lowers demand, even if it simultaneously creates demand to some extent.

I understand the point that some of those who buy bursts due to the high ticket value wouldn’t dream of buying a $25000 mid-50s Custom or an early-60s ES335, hence they’re buying to brag rather than for the mystique.

It comes down to the price elasticity of demand. If Ferrari’s were suddenly $30,000 then you’d lose sales from those who buy to brag/show off but you’d gain sales from those who can now afford them. If you weren’t measuring the value of sales and wanted an increase in units sold then the lower the price, the more you sell. Obviously a lot of companies want the balance to sell as many units as possible, at the highest price they can achieve, so will actively try and manipulate that higher. I’d assume the vintage guitar market finds that elasticity fairly naturally as there’s so many ‘suppliers’ who can’t control what the others do.

Obviously Eric has far more experience, hence why it’s so valuable to have insight from someone who actually does this for a living! (It’s genuinely appreciated, a lot of people don’t like the topic of pricing and details around sales)

 

[pmonk]

A 1996-97 Topps Chrome Refractors #138 Kobe Bryant Rookie Card was just sold for $1.79 million.

The uber-rich don't care. If they want something, they will buy it.

And they buy it so they can brag to their other rich friends.

 

[NTCP8]

Don't generalise that, 'real wealthy' people don't brag, they stay humble. Why would they brag...

You also have the wanna be rich people who need to brag to hide their insecurities. I have a few billionaire friends (some of the with a nice guitar collection), you would think they are lower middle class if you see them on the street.

 

[jeggz]

Twice in my life I saw a person buy a Burst that could barely play.

First was a Japanese businessman in the 90s.

Second was a preteen kid and his dad about 10 years ago.

Yes, he was shopping for a Burst for his 11 year old.

Theres money we can’t even comprehend, they’ll always be a want, and they’ll pay.

 

[DaveSG]

Surely in a world of 6-7 billion people the market will find enough people to pay investment prices for the 2000 or so bursts out there in the world

I'll just be happy if a new lefty '59 is discovered in some closet somewhere. I'd even settle for a '60.