Will the vintage les paul market ever fall?

mudface

Boo Bee
Double Platinum Supporting Member
Gold Supporting Member
Joined
Aug 29, 2016
Messages
10,451
Reaction score
31,841
"The future.... difficult to see it is.....always clouded by the dark side"
 
Last edited:

eric ernest

V.I.P. Member
Joined
Jun 25, 2007
Messages
2,103
Reaction score
6,662
is not 100% based on past players or rock and roll today...if elmer fudd owned one it may be worth six digits.
Best retort of 2021. :laugh2::laugh2::laugh2:

Of all the bursts I've watched sell, and can track where they went, in the past 5-ish years, most went to people in their 40s.

Ok, I'll bite. What percentage of the age 40 group went to JB?

Just curious...
 

jvin248

Senior Member
Joined
Feb 19, 2015
Messages
582
Reaction score
676
.

Don't stand at the top of the market, the tallest tree, and assume they will forever go higher. Trees don't grow to the sky. They get tall but gravity brings them down.

See what guitar pricing does through the next recession.

There is enough nostalgia that true 59 bursts, 50s Teles, and 50s Strats will remain collectible if tied to famous music (not necessarily specific performers) as historical curiosities just like violins. As long as people continue to listen to those styles of music. There are old Lutes out there but other than museums there is no general consumer market interest in owning originals -- because there are just not that many people still listening to the music written and performed on them.

"Oh come on man, you know that style of headstock never stays in tune, just keep playing!"

.
 

ArchEtech

Gold Supporting Member
V.I.P. Member
Joined
Sep 15, 2007
Messages
1,780
Reaction score
641
ultimately, yes.

If the economy tanks ... I'm talking like severe recession, the vintage guitar market will fall, the vintage car market will fall, people will be selling that stuff so that they can eat.
That’s definitely true. That’s when you need to have your money into something tangible so that you can barter to get that cheap vintage guitar when the currency falls through the roof too.
 

pmonk

Senior Member
Joined
Sep 22, 2010
Messages
2,666
Reaction score
1,927
Value based on limited supply will always determine whether the market falls or not.

A 1959 Gibson Les Paul will never, ever be made again. Just like a Van Gogh can never be painted or the American Tobacco Company print a 1910 Honus Wagner baseball card, the super rich like buying things other people can't.
 

eric ernest

V.I.P. Member
Joined
Jun 25, 2007
Messages
2,103
Reaction score
6,662
.
There are old Lutes out there but other than museums there is no general consumer market interest in owning originals -- because there are just not that many people still listening to the music written and performed on them.
Lutes are functionally obsolete....no one is even playing a NEW lute.

Guitars are still functionally and culturally relevant....and that's not changing anytime soon.
 
Last edited:

strat1701

El Diablo Cazador De Hombres
Joined
Sep 26, 2011
Messages
6,556
Reaction score
8,291
Lutes are functionally obsolete....no one is even playing a NEW lute.

Guitars are still functional and culturally relevant....and that's not changing anytime soon.
I'm waiting for the Slash Lute model.....signed and aged.... :D

To the OP oint, bursts will always have their pricing point and be desireable due to the fact they represent Gibson's golden vintage era, and no matter what the company does or even if it folds, that aspect will always reflect the top tier/pricing. Now it may fluctuate with market/economies for sure but same as a Stradivarius or Amati. Even though there are people playing NEW violins, some which claim sound just as good as a Strad, there will always be that demand to have them since what a real Stradivarius or Amati violin represent, same as the bursts do.
 
Last edited:

goldtop0

Senior Member
Joined
Mar 26, 2007
Messages
1,617
Reaction score
1,003
Will the art world suddenly stop being the art world.........and do bears still shite in the woods.........when the world ends I guess, and it may do, it's a real crazy planet :confused:
 

LPPILOT

Senior Member
Joined
Jun 22, 2010
Messages
1,189
Reaction score
650
the really old stuff , with low numbers from early 70. ‘S on back should endure as long as the instrument themselves stay together . Musicians in all field , or professional/ serious crowd seem to always seek out the prized equipment, no matter .
My wife plays cello , and she likes the proven vintage instruments made by the masters . I think sound and playability are always going to be in demand .
The elite players seem to gravitate to the Old wood and hand master built instruments.

The reissue market is totally different , I play several custom shop reissued Fender and Gibson , play them to death , because I won’ t treat my 100 percent original axes like I did in the 70’s . But the private moments with the vintage stuff is priceless.
 

redking

Senior Member
Joined
Mar 16, 2010
Messages
3,800
Reaction score
3,737
Technology and culture are moving at a more rapid pace than ever before in human history, so it is really hard to predict. For now, I think the value will hold for a reasonable period of time such that those of us living right now will not be able to obtain a burst just because of the rarity factor. I wonder though if slightly less desired vintage guitars will suffer a setback in value - for now there are still lots of guitar players and lots of places to go see guitar players whether it be in person or on video. 20 years from now, who knows - as more and more people become accustomed to computer generated music and think that is "cool" compared to humans creating music and art, an even more rapid change could occur. If you look at popular music in general - right now the music platforms themselves are increasingly being touted as the "product" and the music on them is just "content" to demonstrate how great the product is. I find this trend very worrying as a lover of music. For example, even on this forum there are people that worship Elon Musk as a "rock star" if you ever visit the Backstage section. This boggles my mind as I would have pulled his underwear up over his forehead in high school.
 

mudface

Boo Bee
Double Platinum Supporting Member
Gold Supporting Member
Joined
Aug 29, 2016
Messages
10,451
Reaction score
31,841
Lutes are functionally obsolete....no one is even playing a NEW lute.

Guitars are still functionally and culturally relevant....and that's not changing anytime soon.
I absolutely agree. Though accordions and pipe organs are relevant, but I’m not gonna buy one of them soon or ever. I might buy a lute just to fiddle with.

;)
 

Doc Richards

Junior Member
Joined
May 20, 2017
Messages
24
Reaction score
36
One never knows... the crystal ball is cloudy... in 1972 I walked away from a deal on a '68 paisley tele because it was used and the sales guy wouldn't come down $25 from $150... saw one in Vintage Guitar magazine recently for $15,000 and I still don't think they'd knock off $25.
 

sws1

V.I.P. Member
Joined
Jan 10, 2015
Messages
950
Reaction score
1,319
Ok, I'll bite. What percentage of the age 40 group went to JB?

Just curious...
Honestly, I wasn't even counting him. Strange that I completely forgot about him. That probably changes my math. How old is he?
 

greens

Senior Member
Joined
Aug 27, 2015
Messages
344
Reaction score
206
I suspect that any loss of demand for Bursts in the West will be offset by tens of millions of newly wealthy Chinese (and other places) with expensive tastes for rare collectibles.

Whether or not that, say, 63 Melody Maker holds its value is probably another issue.
 

Armitage

Senior Member
Joined
May 14, 2009
Messages
651
Reaction score
400
Plastics break down and some shrink... so there's that
 

allenmance

Senior Member
Joined
May 9, 2012
Messages
325
Reaction score
121
If you would have asked me 15 years ago if a burst or Korina would go down in price if the economy crashed I would say no. But in 2010 I could have bought a killer plain top 59 on eBay out of Canada with a starting bid of $90,000.

The guy was like 5 hours from me and I told him I would pay him $90,000 cash and drive up and buy the guitar and he kept dragging his feet and wound up selling it the last two or three seconds for the opening bid of 90,000 and I lost it.

So yes if the economy tanks again it's not going to be as bad as 2009 but the prices will go down. I don't think we're ever going to see 2010 prices again on vintage, especially bursts, Korinas, 50s ash strats, blackguards, ect.
 

DBDM

Senior Member
Joined
Mar 17, 2020
Messages
241
Reaction score
303
I think it depends on what you mean by "Fall". I think with the coming stock market bubble burst, there will be a dip in the prices as people who paid $500k for a 1959 LP will need to move them. That said I do not believe the prices will fall to the point that a "regular joe" would be able to own one. If a $500k LP falls to $250k, that 1/2 price sale does NOTHING for most of us. Unless they fell to like $20k (MAYBE) it would not move the needle on my ability to afford one. In addition, if the economy crashes and people are dumping LPs, it will very likely crash for me too and I still will not be able to afford one. For the record, the prices of classic bursts are already lower than they were from 2005-2008, when they peaked. George Gruhn talks about it all the time. I suspect there are some guitars that will nearly "always" cost much more than others (even if they are less than now) and I doubt my ability to ever afford one.
 


Latest Threads



Top