State of the collectible/vintage market in 2013?

David Mccarroll

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I have a 65 for sale.
Thanks for the heads up Hoss - he bought one from I think Willies Guitars - it looks real nice - I guess he'll inflict it upon me when I get back to Australia.

Good luck with the '65 - a nice year for Strats - great neck shape, love the transition logo as well.
 

MissingSomethin

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What's the latest on the state of the vintage market?


Prior to virus, what has been the price action the last 5 years?
Up, flat, or down?

Is this a good time to buy ?
 

MissingSomethin

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What's the latest on the state of the vintage market?


Prior to virus, what has been the price action the last 5 years?
Up, flat, or down?

Is this a good time to buy ?
 

RAG7890

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If you are actually thinking of buying a Vintage Guitar, one would hope you have done your homework.

If you had done your homework you would know the answer.

Prices went up, then they were flat, then they came down & continue to go down............apart from the odd iconic piece, but there are always outliers to each & every case.

IMHO if Covid - 19 get worse, prices will go down even faster for those that need to sell or just want to sell.

Owners will talk it up & buyers will talk it down. Historically when times are great & people have $$$, toys go up in value & then when times tank & $$$ are short, toys go down in value.

I would hate to have bought anything collectible in the last 4 - 6 months because, in most cases, it will be worth way less today.

My 2c FWIW & IMHO.

:cheers2:
 

MissingSomethin

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Can you be more specific about when prices went up, flat, and down?
Can you give year ranges from like 2000 onwards?
 

sws1

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As long as people keep using the absurd definition of "25 years to be vintage", then the average prices will drop, particularly when times are tough.
And as long as people try to treat the vintage market as one monolithic thing, they will make mistakes.

Blue-chip era guitars are a more resilient. The more select, the more resilient.

eg., Norlins drop faster. Slab strats slowly dropping. Blackguards UP.
 

hoss

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A casual guitar player with a fuckton of money on the sidelines. But I don't like to overpay in a bubble
Then wait a few months, the US are in a heavy downward spiral with this virus. Lazy government, 3rd world health system.

Watch the numbers, then buy when everything is in ruins.

Numbers live here:

 

Oranjeaap

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Hasn't the vintage guitar market always been one giant bubble? :hmm:
 

eric ernest

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Then wait a few months, the US are in a heavy downward spiral with this virus. Lazy government, 3rd world health system.
The way this is stated is unclear. Are you saying the US has a lazy government and 3rd world healthcare?
 

HarryT

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My guess for Germany/EU, vintage guitar prices will stay or still rise. Supply and demand, we will see.
The great After-Corona-Party could bring new power also to guitar players :band:
 
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hoss

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The way this is stated is unclear. Are you saying the US has a lazy government and 3rd world healthcare?
Yes, Eric, here in Austria we went on lockdown 2 weeks ago. Germany waited another week. Every single day locking down earlier results in 40% less cases 2 weeks later.

A test in the US costs $1,700 and it takes weeks to get the results. Here public health care pays for the tests.
In the US only people with money "will survive".

Full charts from John Hopkins. Only Turkey is on a worse trajectory than the US.

 

slug_maine

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Yes, Eric, here in Austria we went on lockdown 2 weeks ago. Germany waited another week. Every single day locking down earlier results in 40% less cases 2 weeks later.

A test in the US costs $1,700 and it takes weeks to get the results. Here public health care pays for the tests.
In the US only people with money "will survive".

Full charts from John Hopkins. Only Turkey is on a worse trajectory than the US.

Well I'd rather die in the US than live in Austria. And by the way, Austria's death rate per capita is higher than the US.
 

Oranjeaap

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And by the way, Austria's death rate per capita is higher than the US.
That is a most meaningless number for multiple reasons but let's not derail this thread in a "who lives in a better country topic". Hoss has a somewhat pessimistic view of the approach to the crisis and thinks it will impact the vintage market.
Anyone agree?
I doubt we'll see much change especially over here in Europe
 

hoss

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Let me add one more thing and then I'll stay silent: I know a lot about math and stats. Pandemics are pure math and "infection numbers" are bogus because you never know the hidden numbers of infected people. Europe has more deaths than the US because the pandemic came here weeks earlier. Every day counts and science is the only truth.
 


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