State of the collectible/vintage market in 2013?

Jimmi

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I am truly baffled by one dealer (who sometimes advertises on gbase, and even ebay).
He seems to have had the same stock, at the same prices, for maybe 5 years.
In fact it could be 10 years.
The prices seem to have been static throughout including a Conversion priced at $35k.
I am baffled because I don't understand the business model. Maybe he has a shop and sells a lot of strings.
I talked to him about that guitar. Not in a hurry to sell it. Way over priced though I agree.
 

devin dude

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Good points made by many in this thread. Another factor driving the market is baby boomers. They own most of the vintage guitars from the golden era. They'er not ready to unload their collections yet. When they do or their kids do , who have no interest in keeping these high end guitars , the market will be affected , IMO.

Prices will fall in the next 10 to 15 years when this happens. There just aren't enough new buyers to keep the market healthy in the long run.
 

Jimmi

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Good points made by many in this thread. Another factor driving the market is baby boomers. They own most of the vintage guitars from the golden era. They'er not ready to unload their collections yet. When they do or their kids do , who have no interest in keeping these high end guitars , the market will be affected , IMO.

Prices will fall in the next 10 to 15 years when this happens. There just aren't enough new buyers to keep the market healthy in the long run.
I think for the high end guitars you are correct...but the separation is so desperate between the 57-60 LPs and everything else, I think those will be the ones most effected....those and the less desired ones like the Jrs, specials etc that became popular partly because the other ones had become unobtainable. (Not that they are not great guitars in thier own right...but we know this isn't about quality necessarily).

The historics etc prices will prop up the player grade and p90 LPs along with the good conversions. There will be enough people who faced with being able to buy an authentic vintage guitar for a few thousand more than the historic will take the vintage one.
 

Liam

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However, you never know what is going on behind the scenes....Do some retailers have an investor? Do they have old family money? Do they have huge bank debts? Have they sold their house to keep their business solvent?

I would say the following is a better and more accurate indicator of the vintage/MI market...

Many vintage shops have closed their retail store or are now by appointment.
Gruhn fired Walter Carter and sold their iconic building.
Longtime stalwart Guitar Emporium closed.
JK Lutherie just quit the guitar show circuit.
Most Mom and Pop music stores have closed shop.
Guitar Center is teetering on the edge of bankruptcy.
Best Buy is quitting the MI industry and is teetering on the edge of bankruptcy.
I personally know a many dealers who are seriously considering closing their shop.

...and yet somehow there are those who are "seeming" unaffected? :cool:
Point well made, and taken. I didn't buy from any of the seemingly unaffected dealers when times were good, and there's kind of no point when times are less good. Behind the scenes there are a few that have responded to the market changes in a positive way, and have bought and sold at realistic market values throughout the boom and bust. I agree that people get hurt by recession financially, but they happen. Third big one since I've been an adult, yet somehow we're still here.

I never got to experience a "Mom and Pop" music store, as peculiarly in the UK it was always dealers and bigger shops that had the coolest gear. Maybe because we were a good 10 years late into the "Rock and Roll" thing. I reckon it will all be over by the time the summer's out, I mean just how long can a music fad be expected to last? :D

Liam
 

eric ernest

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I didn't buy from any of the seemingly unaffected dealers when times were good, and there's kind of no point when times are less good.
:lol:

If I knew HOW they were "seemingly" unaffected, I would...

1. Tell you.
2. Be doing that myself. (Unless it's drug running, prostitution, or other similar acts.)

:thumb:
 

circusboy28

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Jackson's Rare Guitars here in Sydney went into receivership late last year. About 100 guitars that were on consignment got confiscated by the receivers, and a lot of people were owed a lot of money for unpaid consignment sales. The receivers have only in the last week or so stated that the consignees can have their guitars back. There is a plan for the majority of instruments to be auctioned by Greys Online.

I used to go into Jacksons all the time, and right up to the day they were closed down every single item in the store was WAY over priced, and it seemed that stock moved slowly. Obviously the market thought the same, hence them going out of business. So you have to question the 'business model', where a store of many years standing, known around the world, slowly cuts its own throat rather than face up to market realities.

Australia has a small population, with a small pool of buyers of vintage buyers. I played 100s of guitars in Jacksons over the years - but I never bought any. The prices were insane. It seems (without making any personal judgements) that Steve Jackson could not force the market to see things his way.

Vintage guitar sellers around the world need to face that same reality - that things sell for what people are willing to pay for them NOW, regardless of what they MAY have sold for previously, or what they MAY be worth in the future. Otherwise, the day of the vintage guitar shop may well be done.
 

sikoniko

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As someone who wants to play what I buy... I struggle with old vs new. It is very difficult to get to sit down and play 2-3 guitars and get to pick the best of the batch to my tastes. It seems that you have to either wait for a guitar show or buy sight-unseen (pictures dont count).
 

Sharky

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So you have to question the 'business model', where a store of many years standing, known around the world, slowly cuts its own throat rather than face up to market realities.
that's exactly the same impression I have. It seems as if the vintage dealers around the world formed a cartel and agreed on MAP for the specific gear. If someone wants a certain guitar, he has to pay this and that, otherwise he will not get it. We'll see who has the better staying power.

Really, I do GAS for a 57 GT and might be able to raise the funds for it, but I have my personal line that I wil not cross. But I also don't need to have it. Dealer needs to sell it though
 

sikoniko

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Really, I do GAS for a 57 GT and might be able to raise the funds for it, but I have my personal line that I wil not cross. But I also don't need to have it. Dealer needs to sell it though
I too would love one of these. Its a shame they are so darn expensive. Really makes me think about getting a HM...
 

Ducati

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It would be great if prices continued to fall. I'd be happy to add more guitars - a 1940's J-200, PAF Custom, 50's Fenders, J-35, some early Martins. Lower value makes ownership easier too. Maybe it will go back to being a guitar nerd & pro musician scene only, collecting and playing unpopular dirty old guitars.

Some dealers have closed shop, but a lot of others have opened up on the web. I have no idea what this means for vintage guitar values, but I think that trend is the same for a lot of industries.

What you pady depends a lot on who you're buying from. You might get a great deal from someone who has no financial or emotional investment in a guitar. Or you might have a tough time buying from an investorly type who bought at the peak of the market and has to cash out but won't face reality on price.

But when it comes to getting someone to sell you a '57 Goldtop for less than they want, because of a bad economy, good luck! The really great desirable guitars are still difficult to pry away from owners, especially if they are emotionally or financially invested in it. Jackson's prices were beyond insane, so they might not be a good example. I can think of a few guitars I wouldn't sell, even at above market price.
 

eric ernest

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Some dealers have closed shop, but a lot of others have opened up on the web.
As soon as the "internet" hit in the 90's, I made the proclamation that, "if you own a computer, you're a dealer." because anyone with a computer has access to the same customers as a "dealer." There are plenty of folks making more money selling guitars on eBay than a lot of long time established dealers.

Dealers are really just a middle man and will ultimately and mostly disappear.

...Unless something like a big, fat, regressive tax is put on the internet.
 

yeti

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As soon as the "internet" hit in the 90's, I made the proclamation that, "if you own a computer, you're a dealer." because anyone with a computer has access to the same customers as a "dealer." There are plenty of folks making more money selling guitars on eBay than a lot of long time established dealers.

Dealers are really just a middle man and will ultimately and mostly disappear.

...Unless something like a big, fat, regressive tax is put on the internet.


I personally would love to see a more level playing field to make sure that a brick and mortar shop can compete. Buying guitars on ebay has always struck me as odd. I'd never buy sight unseen.
 

tag2

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I personally would love to see a more level playing field to make sure that a brick and mortar shop can compete.
Taxes never solve a perceived problem. It causes more problems and is punitive to the successful.

I'd never buy sight unseen.
That right there is what will hold the doors open to brick-n-mortar stores. There are many, many consumers out there that prefer to hold it, touch it and deal with a person face-to-face. But, it is all about business model. Any storefront must have a strong web presence also. I have watched this in my industry. The big box stores came in, put a lot of mom-n-pop stores out of business. Then the privately owned businesses sprout from behind and build the business on a high web presence, fair prices, customer service and an inviting store front.
 

Jimmi

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I personally would love to see a more level playing field to make sure that a brick and mortar shop can compete. Buying guitars on ebay has always struck me as odd. I'd never buy sight unseen.
I have but only through people I trust which tend to be some of the established dealers we are talking about. I may not like some of their prices but there are some that can be trusted implicitly. (That includes Eric BTW...expect a discount for that one Eric :) ).

Impossible to only be brick and morder now. Have to have an Internet presence.
 

tdearn

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I have a 1981 Gibson sonex 180 deluxe, does anyone think that may one day be rare and valuable?
 

Jimmi

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There are some Norlin era guitars that are creating up in value. 68-69 customs, heritage/traders/Leo era re-issues for example.
 

yeti

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Taxes never solve a perceived problem. It causes more problems and is punitive to the successful.
I don't see how establishing or enforcing internet sales tax is punitive to the successful. It's closing a loophole. I just did my tax return and paid 7% state use tax and 1.5% local salestax on everything I bought online last year. The internet retailers should be required to collect the tax instead of the states relying on the honor system.
 

tag2

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You were responding to Eric's "big, fat, regressive tax". That doesn't sound like collecting sales tax.
 


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