[Question/Discussion] What will the new 2019 LP Line do to the used market value of 2018 Standards?

Tim Bridge

Member
Joined
Feb 4, 2019
Messages
57
Reaction score
38
Hi all,

Some may remember me from my recent posts about buying my first LP and all the problems I had with GC. If you do, you know that I eventually found a 2018 Standard that I liked and I purchased it (I've been loving it!).

You also know, then, that my 'aspirational' LP is a 90s or early 00s Wine Red Custom -- but I was dead set on only buying a guitar that I could play or, at least, play the exact same year/model (I know there is great variance within year/models, too, but for me, I preferred that rather than dropping $2.2k completely 'blind').

So, as I said, I've been loving the 2018 Standard I purchased but I've always planned to sell this one once I come across a Wine Red Custom in-person that I like. I had no time-limit to find this mythical Wine Red Custom LP and I envisioned it taking a few months to a year. My plan was to save up some more money in the budget and, when I find it, buy it and then list my 2018 Standard to recoup some of the cost. I am more than ok with taking a loss on the 2018 Standard as I am considering it a "rental".

HOWEVER

with the release of the late-2019 LP line... I'm worried what is going to happen to the residual value of the 2018 Standard. I'm okay with losing _some_ money ... but not 500-1000... So, I'm considering violating my 'rule' and finding an Reverb.com Wine Red Custom that looks good in my price range and taking a chance on it. So I can get this 2018 Standard listed for sale sooner-rather-than-later.

My fear is that the 2018 Standard's value will drop significantly once the 2019s enter the market proper.

As my #1 group of people for help and details during my initial search, I am very curious what you all think.

Should I try to unload this 2018 Standard ASAP (which requires first getting my aspirational Custom because to go back to my $150 Ibanez now would be very painful)?

or

Will the 2018 Standard's value stay pretty consistent over the next year -- even with the late-2019 line release? For reference, I paid $2200 for my mint 2018 Standard Blood Orange.

Thanks for reading
 

anorton

Senior Member
Joined
Jan 16, 2013
Messages
510
Reaction score
622
What was a Standard is now a Modern, which are listed at $2799.

If your Standard has a unique finish, switching and pickup configuration options, and modern weight relief, it should fetch close to what you paid. Maybe more, depending on its uniqueness.
 

Gtarzan81

Senior Member
Joined
Jul 19, 2010
Messages
8,348
Reaction score
24,301
I'm thinking we will see a bit above normal depreciation on Standards of the past few years.

The new ones I've played, sample size 2, have been really good.
 

afjungemann

Senior Member
Joined
May 22, 2014
Messages
840
Reaction score
746
If it was used when you bought it, probably won’t lose much. If it was new, $500-$1000 isnt that uncommon. Especially if you sell anytime soon.

You never know who is willing to pay what until you sell though and it only takes one buyer to make a sale.
 

Tim Plains

Senior Member
Joined
Feb 10, 2008
Messages
13,513
Reaction score
9,862
What did the 18s do to 17s?
What did the 17s do to the 16s?
What did the 07s do to the 06s?

Used Standards are worth about $1,500 give or take. Just stick to your original plan.
 

tzd

Senior Member
Joined
Oct 20, 2011
Messages
6,256
Reaction score
4,245
You Standard will drop in value as it would had the same line continued on, the new Standard shouldn't make much of a difference on how much yours would depreciate.
 

Tim Bridge

Member
Joined
Feb 4, 2019
Messages
57
Reaction score
38
Thanks for the quick replies, all.

I had _just about_ convinced the wife to let me dip into the New Car Down Payment bucket in the budget ( current lease is up in October) but it seems like the general consensus is that the value of 2018's line may depreciate a bit more than normal but not much more than normal. So I'll stick to my plan of waiting for one of the many many shops who have my number to give me a call.

Please chime in if you disagree!
 
  • Like
Reactions: tzd

Deus Vult

Senior Member
Joined
Feb 21, 2008
Messages
18,813
Reaction score
33,249
Hi all,

Some may remember me from my recent posts about buying my first LP and all the problems I had with GC. If you do, you know that I eventually found a 2018 Standard that I liked and I purchased it (I've been loving it!).

You also know, then, that my 'aspirational' LP is a 90s or early 00s Wine Red Custom -- but I was dead set on only buying a guitar that I could play or, at least, play the exact same year/model (I know there is great variance within year/models, too, but for me, I preferred that rather than dropping $2.2k completely 'blind').

So, as I said, I've been loving the 2018 Standard I purchased but I've always planned to sell this one once I come across a Wine Red Custom in-person that I like. I had no time-limit to find this mythical Wine Red Custom LP and I envisioned it taking a few months to a year. My plan was to save up some more money in the budget and, when I find it, buy it and then list my 2018 Standard to recoup some of the cost. I am more than ok with taking a loss on the 2018 Standard as I am considering it a "rental".

HOWEVER

with the release of the late-2019 LP line... I'm worried what is going to happen to the residual value of the 2018 Standard. I'm okay with losing _some_ money ... but not 500-1000... So, I'm considering violating my 'rule' and finding an Reverb.com Wine Red Custom that looks good in my price range and taking a chance on it. So I can get this 2018 Standard listed for sale sooner-rather-than-later.

My fear is that the 2018 Standard's value will drop significantly once the 2019s enter the market proper.

As my #1 group of people for help and details during my initial search, I am very curious what you all think.

Should I try to unload this 2018 Standard ASAP (which requires first getting my aspirational Custom because to go back to my $150 Ibanez now would be very painful)?

or

Will the 2018 Standard's value stay pretty consistent over the next year -- even with the late-2019 line release? For reference, I paid $2200 for my mint 2018 Standard Blood Orange.

Thanks for reading
You shouldn’t have bought a les Paul if you’re worried about losing money. A standard usually fetches $1600-1800 in my AO pretty much regardless of year.

If the price of a new Standard is around $2500 or so, the used price should be be 60-70%. That puts us right about what the actual market price range is.
 

Tim Bridge

Member
Joined
Feb 4, 2019
Messages
57
Reaction score
38
You shouldn’t have bought a les Paul if you’re worried about losing money. A standard usually fetches $1600-1800 in my AO pretty much regardless of year.

If the price of a new Standard is around $2500 or so, the used price should be be 60-70%. That puts us right about what the actual market price range is.
Thanks! Please read the rest of the thread.

(1) I'm not concerned with losing money. However, if the value is predicted to decrease significantly, I'd need to revise my plans.
(2) I didn't realize that the 2018 Standards 'are' the new Moderns (thanks @anorton) which changes my value prospective a good deal.
 

MSB

Senior Member
Joined
Jan 20, 2015
Messages
5,127
Reaction score
6,492
I don't think it'll be any(drastically) different than any other year, especially after the honeymoon wears off. New models come out each year, this year is no different. I like Gibsons probably more than the average guy, and nothing about the "new" models has my pants feeling any tighter.
 

wmachine

Senior Member
Joined
Dec 4, 2015
Messages
834
Reaction score
743
We should all have a crystal ball. Anything we do based on the future is a gamble, so take your best shot and live with it.
Personally, I think you're okay. But there probably will be a relatively small window where selling for you is worse, and that's when the 2018s are being closed out. You may find yourself trying to compete used with some smoking deals on new ones. But I think that will settle out over a relatively short period of time and join the typical used market.
 

DarthPaul

Senior Member
Joined
Dec 19, 2016
Messages
1,014
Reaction score
2,920
Offload it now and take the hit.

Guitars are like cars - the value drops as soon as it leaves the lot.
The normal loss on a Standard seems to be in the $500 - $1,000 range.
 

Tim Bridge

Member
Joined
Feb 4, 2019
Messages
57
Reaction score
38
We should all have a crystal ball. Anything we do based on the future is a gamble, so take your best shot and live with it.
Personally, I think you're okay. But there probably will be a relatively small window where selling for you is worse, and that's when the 2018s are being closed out. You may find yourself trying to compete used with some smoking deals on new ones. But I think that will settle out over a relatively short period of time and join the typical used market.
I believe 2018 standards are already closed out. In my search, at least, I found that guitar center had 0 NIB and only 24 'wall hangers' throughout all their Continental U.S. stores.
 

Tim Bridge

Member
Joined
Feb 4, 2019
Messages
57
Reaction score
38
Offload it now and take the hit.

Guitars are like cars - the value drops as soon as it leaves the lot.
The normal loss on a Standard seems to be in the $500 - $1,000 range.
I'd like to! My issue here is that I do not want to be LP-less for any period of time... so before I unload the 2018 Standard, I'd like to find a Wine Red Custom or Standard from the era I'm looking for. However, I've never even _played_ one of them so I'd rather not order online without playing one first!
 

EndGame00

Senior Member
Joined
Aug 31, 2013
Messages
1,649
Reaction score
1,592
The only thing that bugs me is I paid more when I bought the 2019 LP Classic last September ($2299) v. The current street price of $1999 of the same make, year and model and color....

I shoulda waited...
 

anorton

Senior Member
Joined
Jan 16, 2013
Messages
510
Reaction score
622
The only thing that bugs me is I paid more when I bought the 2019 LP Classic last September ($2299) v. The current street price of $1999 of the same make, year and model and color....

I shoulda waited...
I get it, but if you’re happy with your guitar, don’t worry about it. The new 50s Standard at $2499 looks to be the same as the 2019 Traditional I bought at $2799, but I love everything about it and have no plans to sell it. It’s exactly what I wanted at the time I bought it. It’s been inspiring me with my playing, writing and recording for the past 8 months. I’m glad I didn’t wait.
 

redcoats1976

Senior Member
Joined
Feb 1, 2009
Messages
10,686
Reaction score
7,777
three things you probably wont make a profit on...cars,guitars,and women.but you shouldnt lose that much on a nice gibson,they hold their value pretty good.
 

EndGame00

Senior Member
Joined
Aug 31, 2013
Messages
1,649
Reaction score
1,592
I get it, but if you’re happy with your guitar, don’t worry about it. The new 50s Standard at $2499 looks to be the same as the 2019 Traditional I bought at $2799, but I love everything about it and have no plans to sell it. It’s exactly what I wanted at the time I bought it. It’s been inspiring me with my playing, writing and recording for the past 8 months. I’m glad I didn’t wait.
Was seriously GAS-sing when I saw the 2019 Classic... The guitar is almost perfect, it took a while to adjust to a 60's profile neck after owning a 50's Tribute LP....
 


Latest Threads



Top