Not Sure I should Post This

disaffected

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I worked on Wall Street for 35+ yrs in varied capacities. There is an old saying on Wall St that the only value of senior mngt on Wall St is to know when the party is ending- ie, things are getting ugly. If I were a sr exec I would be getting worried and telling my folks to start pulling risk down. While no one can predict which way the market will go...at least no one in my career....financial stress(not a good thing) always shows up first in the fixed income markets and later in the stock markets.

Here is what I see. Right now TED spreads(the diff btw the 3 month Treasury and the London Interbank lending rate) is starting to expand to levels not seen since early in the financial crisis. Secondly, junk bond spreads relative to treasuries are creeping wider (indicating less desiree to hold lower quality paper). And finally, credit default swaps for the broker dealers have been going up aggreswively which is speculation that the broker dealers are going to have some financial issues. Similarly dollar liquidity is declining meaning there a desire to hold dollars vs other currencies. These are worrisome issues. All these are big risk off flags.

Keep your eyes open and your wallet closed. Hopefully this passes and I will have proved myself to be chicken little and will become a target for ridicule.
 

Bigfoot410

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Why wait to be ridiculed. :)

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I know NOTHING about stocks and money stuff, but I can pretend to be annoyed. :)
 

wildhawk1

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SteveC

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These have been interesting times, for sure.

As we are (hopefully) riding through the trough of the pandemic, there are still quite a few -- more than a few, actually -- bumps along all of the roads, not just the financial highways.

In the end, however, that is where the buck (no pun) stops.

Until we get all parts of the economy back on track I believe that we are going to see much more volatility in the financial sector. I do not think the sky is falling, though. It should get worse before it gets better. But, it will get better.

So, having a few years worth of cash on hand will be helpful to weather the storm. Dumping your positions only locks in your loss. Hunker down and keep a stiff upper lip.

But, really - you need at least a years worth of cash, and I'd argue 2+ years worth would be better.
 

judson

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i am seriously considering unloading everything and corner the entire market of beanie babies....as they will peak in about 6 months according to my financial guy......59 burst here i come!!!!

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:slap:
 
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