COVID (Used) Price Madness

DBDM

Senior Member
Joined
Mar 17, 2020
Messages
534
Reaction score
587
What a timely post!

How do y'all determine fair market value?

...

For the Historic Reissue model I'm looking at... New on Gibson and Guitar Center is $4700 (obviously out of stock) and I'm seeing them listed used for around $4600 but still posted after many months. Reverb is telling me average selling price has been right at $4000. Nobody's accepting what I feel like are reasonable offers. No counter offers either.

At least in my case, it's pretty clear they're overpriced given the data at hand -- Reverb selling history and length of time listed. But folks aren't budging on price. Why accept offers if you're unwilling to negotiate?
If you can wait a few months, i would do so. Right now prices are at an all time high and I predict they will come down. They are already seemingly dropping a bit. You can always send the seller a message asking him about his/her/their policies and what they would accept. Some will be pissed about that, others will negotiate. I usually (just me) shoot to pay the middle of the Reverb "average". I usually say something like "your guitar is in the Reverb range but on the high end of that range. I would be more comfortable in the middle. You might get your price if you wait months more but I have money now!"

Edit--If you look at the situation slightly differently, you might get your deal. You want to buy it, seller wants to sell it, and you are actually not very far off on price. Like 9% off. Start there and enjoy your NGD coming soon!
 

goldtop0

Senior Member
Joined
Mar 26, 2007
Messages
1,737
Reaction score
1,115
Yeah it's a bun fight out there with the used market so much so that I find better value going M2M...........but the wait list is just sooo looong now :confused:
 

youngneil1

Junior Member
Joined
Aug 24, 2020
Messages
23
Reaction score
15
I wonder what the `going price` on CC`s with the crazy prices now then?


Owner of CC#7 and CC#28.
Very likely purchase of CC#36 (Goldfinger) incoming :dude:
 

DanD

Senior Member
Joined
Feb 23, 2009
Messages
1,892
Reaction score
2,356
I wouldn't expect any price correction in the fall.

Guitar prices rise in the fall/winter months and fall in late spring/summer when folks start doing more outside activities.

Covid 19 has more folks staying at home and I didn't see any notable dip in prices this past summer.

Typically I'd buy 5-6 guitars in the summer and flip them in the fall but those I found at fair pricing (2) were actually guitars I've been hunting so they won't be going anywhere anytime soon...
 

Great R8

Senior Member
Joined
Jun 25, 2021
Messages
124
Reaction score
96
I don't get it myself, here in austraia there are plenty of new guitars in stores and the prices are same as pre covid prices. In fact, guitar stores in my area are more stocked up than ever before. On the second hand market, everyone's advertising at ridiculous prices, some even same or higher than brand new prices! Better off buying brand new.
 

ARandall

Senior Member
Joined
Apr 16, 2012
Messages
16,488
Reaction score
14,100
But folks aren't budging on price. Why accept offers if you're unwilling to negotiate?

Well, if its anything like Ebay, its because 'accept offers' is default on for every sale item you set up, and you have to remember to dig into the less obvious settings to be able to turn it off.
 

Brek

Gold Supporting Member
Joined
May 15, 2020
Messages
2,962
Reaction score
3,205
I think the used markets at the start of a bear market, lots of music equip on my local facebook sellers page, non of it selling. seen a lovely fender pawnshop amp, started at £300 reduced now to £200 no takers. same with lower end guitars.
 

Brek

Gold Supporting Member
Joined
May 15, 2020
Messages
2,962
Reaction score
3,205
Well, if its anything like Ebay, its because 'accept offers' is default on for every sale item you set up, and you have to remember to dig into the less obvious settings to be able to turn it off.
Yes, I sometimes miss that setting, and that really pisses me off, as some ahole always sends a low ball offer.
 

mjross

Senior Member
Joined
Jul 3, 2008
Messages
1,544
Reaction score
2,046
Supply and demand! I’m not real happy that prices are what they are either. It is getting very difficult to find a deal anymore! I’ve found a few but it took a lot of research. Disappointing but I do not see much of a change with the current covid situation.
 

Mosster47

Silver Supporting Member
Joined
Oct 12, 2014
Messages
616
Reaction score
610
I've talked about this on here before, but ultimately this is driven by Boomers. You have your younger guitarists, but there aren't nearly as many. Also, typically the younger you are the less disposable income you have.

Since 2011 an average of 10k Boomers hit retirement age each day and that will continue until 2030. On the more grim side an average of 5k Boomers die each day. That still leaves a 5k person per day net. These are people with money and time.

I'm almost 40. Basically no one from lifetime that is famous for guitar outside of Slash is known for a Les Paul. They're all Fender, MIJ, and oddball guitars.

All the LP Gods are in that Boomer and older Gen X age ranges. Go back to that 5k daily average and let's say 5% are guitar players. That's probably way below reality, but let's just use it. That's 100 people a day with time and money. The Gibson CS puts out about 200 guitars per day. I'm not even factoring the rest of the world.

If you have the bread to own one CS guitar what are the odds you own two? Probably pretty high.

There will absolutely be a high end guitar market crash, but the reality of the numbers say it's not happening any time before 2040. The first half of Gen X will have that same desire to be a late stage guitar hero.
 

pillbug

Senior Member
Joined
May 29, 2013
Messages
1,455
Reaction score
1,146
I've talked about this on here before, but ultimately this is driven by Boomers. You have your younger guitarists, but there aren't nearly as many. Also, typically the younger you are the less disposable income you have.

Since 2011 an average of 10k Boomers hit retirement age each day and that will continue until 2030. On the more grim side an average of 5k Boomers die each day. That still leaves a 5k person per day net. These are people with money and time.

I'm almost 40. Basically no one from lifetime that is famous for guitar outside of Slash is known for a Les Paul. They're all Fender, MIJ, and oddball guitars.

All the LP Gods are in that Boomer and older Gen X age ranges. Go back to that 5k daily average and let's say 5% are guitar players. That's probably way below reality, but let's just use it. That's 100 people a day with time and money. The Gibson CS puts out about 200 guitars per day. I'm not even factoring the rest of the world.

If you have the bread to own one CS guitar what are the odds you own two? Probably pretty high.

There will absolutely be a high end guitar market crash, but the reality of the numbers say it's not happening any time before 2040. The first half of Gen X will have that same desire to be a late stage guitar hero.
Adam Jones seems to be doing OK.
 

GearHo

Senior Member
Joined
Sep 3, 2007
Messages
1,561
Reaction score
4,206
High prices will only come down if people stop paying high prices……

anyone that needs another guitar that is priced high,and is willing to pay for it , wants the guitar more than their money.

currently I have twenty electrics, two acoustics, and two bass guitars, I certainly don’t need another, nor would I overpay just to do so.

dealers asking close to 10k for new gibsons is Insane, vintage is even worse, and We have no one to blame but the consumers that drive the prices up.

There is one guy I see on reverb that has the same fiesta red Avri strat for sale. It has not sold in over a year, and the price started at 4500and is now at 6999. This makes the 5k similar guitar look like a deal, when in fact neither guitar is worth the price.

There are still decent deals out there, but they are few and far between. Support your forum brothers and sisters and buy used, at fair prices.

if you need to go to the ”lab” or want to play authentic, you are going to overpay.
 

Seven

Senior Member
Joined
Sep 9, 2009
Messages
6,069
Reaction score
18,769
I think the used markets at the start of a bear market, lots of music equip on my local facebook sellers page, non of it selling. seen a lovely fender pawnshop amp, started at £300 reduced now to £200 no takers. same with lower end guitars.

Same on my local cl. Same gear posted over and over for months, none of it is moving.
 

sputnik

Senior Member
Joined
Nov 26, 2008
Messages
1,129
Reaction score
1,031
I was told by a dealer that Gibson is raising prices across the board next week. A dealer on Reverb just raised the price on a Custom Shop ‘64 ES335 I was watching from $5399 to $5999.
 

spartacus slim

Senior Member
Joined
Apr 4, 2008
Messages
601
Reaction score
710
Music store: new Les Paul Custom Shop Custom £4099

eBay/Reverb dealers: used ‘90s ‘00s & Richlite era Les Paul Custom Shop Customs in various degrees of dilapidation £3999

Me: no
 

surge98

Senior Member
Joined
May 14, 2013
Messages
158
Reaction score
50
As far as new Gibsons go, I think I'm out. The blues lawyers can have them. I'm not buying a guitar that costs more than a decent used car. $7000 for wood, lacquer, glue, crude electronics, and some hardware just isn't worth it.
 

ajory72

Senior Member
Joined
Jun 16, 2010
Messages
1,233
Reaction score
603
I have seen the same thing happen in Australia with both houses and guitars. There are corporations buying up real estate now. Some of them are doing it for foreign buyers in places like China, Singapore etc. They just get an Aussie to be the head of the corporation and it doesn't appear as an overseas buyer. The locals just think that there is lots of domestic speculation and they all repeat the mantra that real estate always goes up.

Luckily there are no corporations buying up guitars for profit. The Japanese guitars have also gone up with COVID but recently have started to look a bit more realistic for pricing. The early days of lock downs certainly had an effect with multiple people taking up guitar or some other instrument. Those lockdowns are still happening in Sydney and Melbourne but at some point the effect is going to wear off and the lock downs will stop once they reach a certain % vaccinated.
I believe you are spot on with the Japan market, I recently bought a new guitar from there and even with shipping fees and import taxes it was still cheaper than buying new from within Australia…. frustrating but the reality in South Australia at least (high markups on Gibson guitars within our border)
 

mjross

Senior Member
Joined
Jul 3, 2008
Messages
1,544
Reaction score
2,046
I was told by a dealer that Gibson is raising prices across the board next week. A dealer on Reverb just raised the price on a Custom Shop ‘64 ES335 I was watching from $5399 to $5999.
Holy Crap! Not good…
 

efstop

The dickens you say!
Gold Supporting Member
Joined
May 29, 2015
Messages
12,047
Reaction score
29,969
I'll be looking at used Gibsons and Fenders now, and won't buy if I think the price is out of line. I have lots of guitars to keep me occupied.
 

Latest Threads



Top